Jalen Johnson: 6'8" 220 lbs. 19 years old

Listed at 6’9” and 220 lbs, Johnson is another bulldozer of a forward prospect in transition who loves to make plays on the defensive end, get out on the break and wreak havoc with his blend of speed, power and playmaking potential.

It all starts with his propensity for finishing around the basket. While some drivers don’t have a soft touch at the rim and rely on power moves and dunking to put two points on the board, Johnson has actually showcased some feathery finishes off the glass in college which bodes well for him converting on similar looks at the next level.

Notice in this clip how he’s able to absorb the contact, fade and kiss his shot off the glass with ease. That’s the difference between being able to POTENTIALLY get a bucket inside in the NBA vs. it being a natural part of one’s arsenal. 

Whether it’s a straight line drive at the basket or an attack from a different angle, Johnson is able to rack up points in a variety of ways inside. He’s even shown the ability to drive and hit a reverse layup with ease after slicing through multiple defenders.

Already it’s clear that he’s going to love being able to get out and run even more so than in college playing on an NBA floor. But there’s even more to unpack regarding his growing three-level scoring output.

While his outside game is still developing and evolving, Johnson’s spot-up game has actually been coming along nicely. When the defense sags off him and gives him space off the catch or out of a PnP situation, Johnson is confident in his ability to can a long jumper and has even been able to connect on a few threes.

For all of the concerns coming into this season regarding his jump shot, he still rates out as good per Synergy Sports on spot up opportunities. Being able to knock in an open jumper every once in a while expands the rest of his dribble drive game and forces the defense to make tough decisions when deciding to apply more pressure and risk him gaining the advantage on a jab, drive and finish, or to gamble on his outside shooting and leave him room to dare him on those looks.

It’s probably still smart for defenders to hedge against his inside attack given his touch and size advantage in the majority of situations, but should this become a regular part of his game, it makes things a lot more interesting especially given the added space in NBA offenses.

What’s also been nice to see is Johnson’s improving shot off the bounce or after coming to a stop in the lane. While his handle is by no means elite and he’s not a creative isolation scorer just yet (13th percentile in isolation sets per Synergy), he’s already shown us examples of taking a few dribbles into the painted area, coming to a stop and then stepping into a clean shot in open space.

That’s a shot Johnson can likely learn how to create at will in the league because defenses will want to cut off his ability to get closer to the rim not just because of his knack for finishing but to also take away his drive and kick game. Taking advantage of what defenders give him is something that Johnson is still figuring out how to leverage more in his favor due to his unselfish nature.

Speaking of playing unselfishly, Johnson’s gift for finding the open man on the move is what NBA teams are going to value and hope he can showcase plenty of from day one. 

After all, what team wouldn’t want a physical forward who can make everyone around him better? With his athletic ability and court vision, doesn’t that potentially sound like a top five pick in the draft?

Oh, and if that wasn’t enticing enough, here’s an easy dish inside off the break in a tight enough window.

And just for good measure, how about a no-look behind the back pass from when he was in his bag against the Pitt Panthers?

The fact that Johnson already has a catalog of impressive passes that’s still growing given the number of games he’s been able to play due to a foot injury he suffered near the start of the season speaks volumes to how creative he can be when it comes to finding others. Now granted, this part of his game does have limitations.

As mentioned already, his handle is a work in progress and not something to make a long-term bet on to improve significantly quite yet. He tends to dribble the ball high and away from his body when he’s making a quick cut inside, and it’s hampered his ability to finish a play efficiently at times.

But when he has an open lane to work with or he can get out on the break and spread the ball out to a variety of shooters, he looks like a natural fit in the modern NBA filled with big wings and forwards acting as lead playmakers.

One important area for Johnson to keep in mind when operating without the basketball is acting as a screen and roll threat or a cutter to keep defenses off balance. He’s so effective in simple play types that the gravitational pull on the defense opens up so much for his teammates, so becoming more aware of where to be on the floor in off-ball scenarios can better help maximize not just personal success, but his team as well.

Johnson has an atypical skills package to work with for someone his size, but given that he’s not the level of ball handler of an above average playmaking point and doesn’t possess that “wiggle” and slithery dribble game to maneuver around and through specific defenses at times, he’s unlikely to become a high usage offensive threat in the NBA.

When the chance arises for an easy drive, transition play or quick pass action, these are all things Johnson has proven he can do. But high usage generally means a higher degree of difficulty when it comes to improvising. Johnson hasn’t proven he’s capable of doing so on a consistent basis YET, although his game against Pitt was a jaw-dropping effort and an example of what it could look like should he put everything together. In that game, Johnson put up a stat line of 24 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists, two steals and four blocks. And let’s not forget his 19 point, 19 rebound debut against Coppin State.

So a lot of his major strengths have been outlined, but what are the largest concerns teams should have and expect to be patient with when drafting him?

Rebounding and overall defensive impact.

Now seeing those rebounding totals, it wouldn’t be expected to think that he could improve significantly in that area, but he actually can. Johnson rarely boxes anyone out and grabs the vast majority of his boards through getting close to the rim and jumping higher than the average man he needs to beat to the ball.

Should Johnson actually learn proper box-out technique and take better advantage of his physical base, he could routinely average double digit rebounds per game at the collegiate level, and it could be the difference between five rebounds and eight or nine in the NBA.

Players in the pro game, particularly centers, are much bigger and stronger than Johnson is at this stage of his career and can overpower him and knock him out of position should he just stand upright expecting the ball to magically fall into his lap. He gives great effort to hustle to the glass on both ends don’t get me wrong. But there’s another level for him to hit to really pull down a larger quantity of boards to get out on the break and utilize his greatest attributes as a basketball player.

And that’s why rebounding technique needs to be something he prioritizes learning with better coaching and training. Starting the break and getting others involved or finishing at the basket is what he does best, so why not do everything in his power to make sure those plays happen more often than not?

Not only can he stand to improve his efforts on the defensive glass, but also when attacking and hunting for offensive boards as well. Look what happens when he’s on high alert and has a run at the rim for a put-back dunk.

There’s no reason why this can’t be a slightly more common occurrence and it helps not only get him going offensively but also gets everyone else around him engaged and excited for what’s next to come.

Johnson isn’t a slouch when it comes to rebounding, but we can all stand to get better at things we’d consider ourselves good at. His path to being a double-double threat on a nightly basis isn’t farfetched.

But now we come to where Johnson is going to have to do some major film study and put in the hours to improve, and that’s on defense.

Johnson’s potential defensive impact SHOULD be much more commonplace given the natural talent he has to work with.

But this next play in the post doesn’t let that one clip tell the entire story about his consistency on that end of the floor.

Between lackadaisical efforts to attempt to make a flashy block or gun for a steal in a passing lane, to just looking lost at times in space off the ball, there’s much work to be done with Johnson’s awareness on defense. 

Now granted, almost every young player coming into the league nowadays has question marks about how impactful they can be right away in off-ball situations, but Johnson is too talented of a prospect to earn any label along the lines of “isn’t smart” in any area on the floor.

The good news is that he’s proven he can hold his own on the perimeter in one-on-one situations. Getting into a stance, using his length and lateral quickness to contain his man isn’t a foreign concept to him. And when he puts in the effort to fight back and stand his ground in the post, he’s not the easiest guy to take advantage of down low either. 

When he’s asked to play in man schemes or roam around to playmake till his heart’s content, Johnson can look like the defender you’d expect him to be on first glance. So even though his off-ball defense proves problematic when it comes to guys backdoor cutting him or bodying him up in the post, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he plays a lot more engaged and produces better results with the right coaching in the NBA.

Effort, communication and maturity aren’t issues for Johnson. From what I’ve already heard, he’s potentially one of the best interviews in the projected field of draft candidates, and he has the reputation of a solid teammate with a good head on his shoulders. As far as ceilings are concerned, he has one of the highest out of the entire class. 

The greatest selling point Johnson has is he’s been able to produce at such a high level yet he’s still technically raw in some major areas. The highlights won’t stop pouring in for JJ, and the fact that’s the case while still plenty of room to grow speaks volumes to the level of prospect he is.

Physically, his body likely isn’t done filling out and he could stand to pack on another 5-10 pounds of pure muscle to maintain his imposing presence while retaining the speed and quickness he does have. He’s not quite as wide-bodied as Tobias Harris, but picture that as a close outcome to what Johnson should be aiming for when he’s grown into his body. 

While All-Star could be within Johnson’s range, a realistic outcome is one of a really good starting caliber player with third option scoring potential and secondary playmaking opportunities next to a strong floor general. If he can put up averages of 18 PPG, 9 REB and 5 AST while maintaining efficiency, limiting turnovers and playing up to his potential as an on-ball defender while making the occasional highlight weak side block or steal, we’re talking about someone who should absolutely be in All-Star conversations depending on team performance.

NOTABLE STATS AS OF 2/1/21:

12.0 PPG, 7.3. REB, 2.4 AST, 55.3 FG%, 30.8 3P%, 62.5 FT%, 27.9 PER, 59.2 TS%

74th percentile in Overall Offense, 68th percentile in Transition, 96th percentile in Cuts, 94th percentile Around the Basket, 33rd percentile in Overall Defense