Notable Stats as of 2/21/20: 17.0 PPG, 3.3 REB, 5.2 AST, 49.3 FG%, 44.6 3P%, 75.6 FT%, 28.4 PER, 61.7 TS%

85th percentile in total offense, 96th percentile in Spot Ups, 85th percentile in PnRs including passes, 97th percentile on Jump Shots and C&S, 77th percentile in Overall Isolation, 53rd percentile in total defense

Take note of this easy read to the open shooter out of the PnR made here by Butler. Instead of exploding off the screen and looking to score, he took his time with a one-dribble move and flung the ball out to the open man. Butler kept his head up, maintained his composure and made the unselfish play. 

In the same game against Kansas, he made an equally unselfish play and in this action threw a bullet of a pass to the corner for what could’ve been a hockey assist had it not been for the missed 3P attempt.

Butler plays with an unselfish mindset and doesn’t ever shift into his highest gear without evaluating his surroundings and reading the court like a QB progressing through his receivers and options.

Even in transition Butler doesn’t feel rushed when he’s making decisions. Here he’s driving into a situation with three Jayhawk defenders around him but doesn’t get nervous or make a mental error or miscue handling the ball. He keeps his head up and makes the correct read to his teammate on the left and fires a bounce pass where it needs to go in a timely manner.

Even more impressive on this transition play against TCU, Butler brings the ball up the floor, penetrates into the lane, pulls the ball back out for a few dribbles and lets his big man get position inside and then rifles a pass through the air for the easy finish around the basket.

These are just some examples of playmaking done the right way. It isn’t necessary to be the quickest player on the floor to get to spots and set up teammates for quick looks. Passing is about maintaining patience, progressing through reads and finding the open man, not just assist hunting for the shot. 

Even when it comes to scoring, Butler’s three-level scoring attack isn’t predicated on athletic advantages or consistent tough shot making, although he does have a few tricks up his sleeve.

Sure Butler is capable of making shots in isolation situations or pulling up when he has space, but his most impressive makes come from probing the defense, pulling back out and then creating something out of lulling his man to sleep or getting the other team off balance. One of Butler’s most impressive hesitation moves also came in the game against Kansas where he used a hesitation move and fake to the left and then flashed the right crossover for the open look at the basket.

It’s dribbling craft like that which separates good guards from great ones. And that wasn’t even the level of a killer crossover like one from Kyrie Irving. That was about the timing of the move, as well as understanding the angle he was at and where he needed to get to in order to get a shot off. 

Positional awareness, off-ball movement and timing are all key parts to Butler’s game, and normally those aren’t skills we’re praising when it comes to surface-level draft evaluation. Normally it’s the uber athletic dunks or highlight iso step-back jumpers, not the maturity and skill behind what the normal eye would say is a “simple move”. 

 Another great example of positional and spatial awareness is on this BLOB play where Butler gets the ball into his man for the handoff and relocates behind the arc understanding that he only has one man to deal with if he gives himself space on the perimeter vs. curling and getting into the lane where he could meet as many as four KU defenders.

And quite frankly, he got a much better look from 3P range and in THOSE particular situations, three is truly greater than two.

Speaking of his ability to convert on looks from deep, Butler’s shot mechanics are vertical and tight. No wasted movement in his jumper, Butler doesn’t need a ton of space or time to get his shot off. And when he’s wide open, forget about it.

When it comes to evaluating top prospects, it’s one thing if the player can make an uncontested 3. It’s a whole different ball game when that player understands how to move off-ball and position himself for a C&S opportunity.

On this play, Butler fakes the screen and draws defensive attention inside and instead slides out at the top of the arc for an open C&S look which caught the defense completely off guard. It’s the simple plays like those that guards don’t always come into the league knowing how to execute. Dig deep enough, and I’m sure there are tons of examples of more athletically gifted guards not understanding how to move without the ball and constantly keep defenders guessing.

And yes, as mentioned if he needs to hit a 3 in a pinch out of an isolation set, he can do that too with little to no problem.

In short, Butler’s ability to hit jump shots in a variety of ways makes him a unique combo guard weapon at the next level when his playmaking is also factored in. 

But where his game gets really interesting is in his body control and contortion while finishing inside.

So the defense gets a decent closeout, Butler fakes the shot, dribbles into a man inside and hangs in mid-air with enough balance to make the layup look easy? He can make you pay if you leave him open, or fake and get what he wants inside the arc or dish to the open man should he get himself in trouble. How is that easy to guard for anyone, let alone college defenses?

And when he pulls it all together, the patience, poise, dribble craft and finishing ability, his offensive game is a thing of beauty.

Even after everything I’ve mentioned, Butler does have some physical limitations that will likely hold him back from being a “superstar” in the NBA. He doesn’t have the most elite first step, he’s not gifted with plus length or verticality to rise and finish over every defender you can throw at him in the league. But if he picks and chooses his spots against pro-caliber players the way he has at Baylor, then do those limitations matter as much?

Does he even need to be a high usage guard to live up to any hype that could surround him coming out of the draft? He doesn’t, and that’s the special part about Butler’s mindset and leadership on the court.

Butler is more than content with letting Mitchell bring the ball up the floor, initiate offense and finish plays off. They’ve formed one of the most dynamic backcourts in the country and compliment each other incredibly well. Mitchell’s game is more about speed and explosiveness while Butler’s is all about timing, understanding of angles and situational shot making. But neither of them step on each other’s toes, and that’s a credit to the threat Butler poses off the ball.

That’s enough about his offensive arsenal though, let’s talk about his defense. 

While some of those physical disadvantages rear their heads on this end as well, that doesn’t take away from the fact that Butler will hound anyone until they cough up that ball. His on-ball competitiveness is almost second to none, and while there are examples of him getting beat off the dribble, there’s plenty of others where he snatches up a loose dribble and gets his team moving down the other end of the floor.

Whether he’s in man D or in a zone scheme, Butler keeps his head on a swivel and knows when to play a matchup or sag off a bit and help a teammate.

Where Butler gets himself into trouble on the defensive end is when he’s a little too “handsy” of a defender and gets a little too overzealous. Foul trouble has been an issue for him at times, like on this play here.

When we’re talking about a leader on both ends of the floor with enough skill to play either guard position effectively, you’ll take the bad with the good. 

And even on defense, there’s plenty more bad than good. Butler knows how to blow up PnR sets, play passing lanes, take on the challenge of guarding the other team’s best perimeter player. Butler takes all of his matchups seriously and takes pride in his defensive efforts. And that spirit and energy bleeds through the rest of the program and likely makes coach Scott Drew’s job easier. It’s one thing to jazz guys up about scoring a bunch of points, it’s another to get them as excited to play hard-nosed defense night in and night out. You don’t have to give Butler a speech about how important that end of the floor is.

Butler’s NBA career could go a few different ways. He could prove to not be athletic enough or as talented of a shot maker off the bounce like he was and settle into more of a bench role.

Or the more likely outcome could hit and he puts all of his skill together to be a mainstay guard in a starting lineup on a good team for years to come.

When I evaluated another guard who didn’t get enough buzz coming into the draft until late in the pre-draft process, I had similar thoughts about him that I do Butler as well. If everything broke right for Donovan Mitchell, he wouldn’t fail and he’d be a positive in the NBA no matter the outcome.

While Mitchell is a far more explosive athlete, I feel the same way about Butler from a skills standpoint. It’s unlikely that he fails, and at the very least commands second units and proves talented enough to end games in a crunch time unit. 

But there could be more, and it all comes from his approach to the game that will allow him to earn minutes and touches right away for the team that drafts him. 

In a draft where the majority of the excitement will naturally come from the one-and-done “diaper dandies”, Butler deserves to have more attention thrown his way given his winning pedigree as well as his mature and fundamentally strong two-way game.